What’s up (or down) with the BDI?

By David Llewellyn-Smith Coal, iron ore and grain prices are all headed one way – up. Yet the Baltic Dry Index, the generally reliable gauge of demand for bulk commodities is collapsing. Last year the BDI correctly foreshadowed and tracked the mid-year slowdown in the global economy, despite being given short shrift by many bullish commentators seeking to rationalise an... Read More

The China Factor

By Greg Peel. While the most dominant theme of 2010 has been the European debt crisis, jointly and severably concerns over Chinese monetary policy have also kept investors awake at night. The great fear is that having been fundamental in dragging the world rather quickly out of what may have been the Great Depression II, Beijing’s inexperience might yet derail the whole... Read More

Material Matters: China And Chile Visits, Copper, Iron Ore, And Gold

By Chris Shaw Following a recent visit to China, Citi remains of the view materials intensive growth in that economy of better than 20% per year will continue, driven by the combination of urbanisation and fixed asset investment. In terms of the various sectors of the economy, Citi’s view remains housing is not in a bubble as while the government is attempting to slow... Read More

Iron ore: It’s (not) different this time

By Gaurav Sodhi A Faustian bargain has been made in China. In return for legitimising the authoritarian rule of the Communist Party, the people of China have been wrenched from grinding poverty and heaved towards a prosperous new future. At the heart of this exchange lies steel. For the technocrats who command the heights of the Chinese economy, steel isn’t just another metal;... Read More

What chance a BHP buyback?

By Greg Peel Oh Canada. While sovereign takeover rejections should come as no surprise to Australians who’ve had to deal with a few now, it did come as some surprise to analysts that the Canadian government has quite emphatically rejected BHP Billiton’s (BHP) bid for the Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan. BHP has a month to go back and think about it, but no details... Read More